UK: transport CO2 emissions projections 2040

Transportation sector carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in the United Kingdom are projected to decrease by roughly 26 percent between 2022 and 2040 under the reference scenario. Under a scenario with similar assumptions to the reference scenario but with higher fossil fuel prices (FFP - high), transportation sector CO₂ emissions would fall by slightly over 30 percent over the same time frame, to 79 million metric tons (MtCO₂).

Projected carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from transportation in the United Kingdom (UK) from 2020 to 2040, by scenario (in million metric tons)

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Release date

November 2023

More information

Region

United Kingdom

Survey time period

2020 to 2040

Supplementary notes

Reference Scenario: Based on central estimates of economic growth and fossil fuel prices. Contains policies that have already been implemented and those planned policies (“EEP-ready” policies).

Low Prices: Similar assumptions to reference scenario but with lower projected fossil fuel prices.

High Prices: Similar assumptions to reference scenario but with higher projected fossil fuel prices.

Low economic Growth: Similar assumptions to reference scenario but with lower projected economic growth (0.25 percentage points lower e.g. growth of 3% would become 2.75%).

High economic Growth: Similar assumptions to reference scenario but with higher projected economic growth (0.25 percentage points higher e.g. growth of 3% would become 3.25%).

Existing Policies: UNFCCC With Existing Measures scenario. Contains central price and growth assumptions but without any planned policies included.

This statistic uses original data from the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy and includes copyright material licensed under © Crown, the Open Government License v3.0

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